(Original title: CITIC Jianzhun: Black home appliances profit space Visty industry valuation has a rise in valuation)
Zhitong Finance APP was informed that CITIC Construction Investment issued a research report that the black power industry has a broad profit space and has room for improvement.From the perspective of income,今日头条 the competitive pattern at home and abroad is optimized, the head brand share has been improved. At the same time, the large -screen and high -end trends of products are obvious, the product structure is optimized, it is conducive to the average price increase, and the income is expected to continue to grow; from the cost end, the income is from the cost end.Look, the panel cycle attributes weaken, the central panel center is expected to decrease steadily, and the range of fluctuations is expected to decrease significantly. From the perspective of the profit end, the profit margin of TV manufacturers is expected to increase through the three dimensions of "structure, structure, and cost".It is expected that the cycle attributes of the industry will be diluted in the future, and the valuation logic will change from cycle attributes to consumer attributes. The profitability of domestic head manufacturers will improve, and the valuation has room for improvement.
The main point of view of CITIC Construction Investment is as follows:
The competition pattern at home and abroad has improved, and mainland Chinese brands have accelerated the rise.In the context of stable global TV demand, domestic brands have increased through seizing share.The domestic competition pattern has improved. The top brand share of the head brand represented by Hisense and TCL has continued to increase, the leading range of competitive products has continued to expand, and the second echelon has gradually fallen behind.The overseas competition pattern has also improved. Mainland Chinese manufacturers have risen rapidly. Hisense, TCL and other domestic brands ranked among the first echelons. In 2022, the global market share was divided into second and third place.In terms of sales growth, short -term tracking variables are the growth rate of sales, and long -term tracking variables are sales share.
The trend of large -screen and high -end is obvious, and revenue is expected to continue to grow.The increase in large -sized products and high -end products at home and abroad increased, which is conducive to the increase in the unit price of products.At present, the unit price of domestic brands is relatively low. In 2022, the TV revenue of Hisense and TCL both had about $ 6 billion, and the related business revenue of LG and Samsung was close to 150,000 to 27.5 billion US dollars.Compared with the lower comparison, it will be accompanied by high -end and large -screen product structure trends of domestic brands such as Hisense and TCL in the future. The average price is expected to gradually increase and reduce the gap with the Korean system.In terms of average price growth, short -term tracking variables are product structure, and long -term tracking variables are brand price indexes.
The periodic impact of the panel is weakened, and the future panel center is expected to decrease steadily.From a price point of view, the cost of panels has declined for a long time, and downstream TV companies have benefited.From the perspective of cycles, the LCD panel will still dominate for a long time, and the cycle attributes will gradually weaken, which is mainly affected by technology, supply and demand, pattern, strategy and other aspects.In the short -term judgment, the current panel price has returned to the cash cost line, and the rate of rivers of panel manufacturers have risen. The price of short -term panels is expected to stabilize in 2023Q3; long -term judgment, as the panel cycle attributes weaken, the price center of the panel price is expected to decrease steadily.And the range of price fluctuations is expected to decrease significantly.In terms of panel prices, short -term tracking variables are crop mobility, and long -term tracking variables are supply and demand ratio.
The profit margin of TV manufacturers is improved through the three dimensions of "structure, structure, and cost".1) Figure: Overseas black electricity profitability is higher than that of Bai Dian. At present, domestic brands have continued to increase overseas share. At the same time, domestic head brands generally use light asset operation models in overseas markets, which are expected to achieve high profit margins.2) Structure: Optimization of domestic head brand product structure. In the future, head brands are expected to re -engraved Samsung's growth path. First, quality ratio seize the low -end market, and then gradually introduce high -end products to enhance brand price indexes.3) Cost: The impact of the panel cycle on TV's gross profit margin has weakened, and the main price variance of the panel is reduced. At the same time, the head brand supply chain management system is complete, the cost control capacity is strengthened, and the terminal price of the terminal is flexibly adjusted.It is expected that the profit level of Chinese manufacturers will become stable in the future.
The value of the black electricity industry has been reused, and the valuation has room for rise.In the past, due to the influence of the panel cycle, there was no stable profit expectations, so PB valuation was used; it is expected that to a certain extent through the panel cycle to a certain extent, it can have a stable profit margin and profit expectations, so PE valuation is used.As the panel cycle attributes gradually dilute, the domestic and foreign market share of domestic and foreign TV manufacturers has been further improved, the product structure continues to optimize, and its profit has continued to improve. Compared with overseas leaders, the valuation still has room for improvement.
Investment Advice:The colorful competition pattern is under good, the market share and product structure of the leading brand continues to improve and optimize the product structure, and the support capabilities are stable.
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