Princeton -2023 ended with a frustrating and boring tone, and the upcoming 2024 election exacerbated people's concerns about democracy and the fate of global order.In addition to the Russian presidential "election" in March, the European Parliament elections will be held in June. In November, the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in November. British elections will be held before January 2025.Between the possibility of Russia's dictatorships to ensure the possibility of re -election and the wave of populism on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, there are sufficient reasons to worry about the future of democracy.
Of course, populists do not always win elections, even if they form the largest political parties in Parliament -just like last fall in Poland and the Netherlands -do not necessarily mean that they will control the government.The scene that really made people unsteady at night is that Donald Trump has always led Biden in the public opinion survey of the state where Bayeng must win.But Trump's victory is more likely to win than what Trump and anti -Trumpists are considered less.
Such polls -one year before the election -often stimulate anxiety and increase Trump's momentum.But if we take a step back, we may find that the situation is more complicated.The current political dynamics of the United States is on the line of the "timid ghost game" -this is a classic proposition in game theory.This model comes from James Dean in the movie "Rebellion for No reason" (Rebel without a case)"Chicken Run", two of them pushed the stolen cars to the cliff to see who escaped the danger first.American democracy and the world are experiencing the same terrible experience.
Both political parties are preparing to nominate weak candidates, and one of them is older.If you are elected again, Biden will be 82 years old on the day of the inauguration and Trump will be 78 years old.Trump promises to be more aggressive than his first term.His goal is to bring "revenge" and rule in a dictatorship to remove people who oppose him in the US government.However, he seems to be increasingly unable to form a coherent sentence, and as always, as always, he is blind to the basic political facts.
At the critical moment of history, the aging of senior positions is catastrophic.German President Paul Von Hindenburg was 84 years old when Hitler came to power in 1932, suffering from late dementia.Similarly, British Prime Minister Ramsay Macdonald also suffered from Alzheimer's disease during the Great Depression.
Of course, Biden is most commonly depicted by errors and unfairness.In fact, he is still very sharp, but he is limited by the financial and economic problems of the epidemic.Although the inflation has been fading, even under the situation of strong economy, many voters are disturbed.As the current president, Biden will take responsibility for this, whether it is his fault.In addition, Biden needs to reduce the temperature between the United States and China, although both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party believe that China is a dangerous enemy.
The key to this election is that each party believes that another candidate is the weak.Biden's previous appeal in the Democratic Party was largely due to the fact that he defeated Trump in 2020, and he might be defeated by another person.But now, people do not know whether a young leader can mobilize voters more effectively, especially those young Americans who may not vote at all.
This is the essence of the timid ghost game: the two elderly people are running towards the cliff, and each party needs to let their weak candidates go to the cliff to persuade the other party to continue the game.If a more dynamic and less burden candidate comes in at the last moment, he will have a great chance; however, if the other party still has time to change a better candidate, then the result is unpredictable.
Strangely, Trump's strong poll results may change this dynamics.If the Republican Party is forced to view Trump as a winner, it is more likely to stay in the campaign to cross the cliff.In this case, when they still have a chance, supporters have made sense from catastrophic Trump cars (the language of game theory).Look, we have seen Nikki Haley as a reasonable alternative.If the Republican dynamic changes occur, a strong signal will be issued to the Democratic Party, asking them to turn to younger candidates.
This American election logic is important because it is linked to another timid ghost game.Russia is facing economic and military fatigue, an increase in inflation, and even signs of protests that have been forced to be involved in suicide conflict.But President Vladimir Putin has been betting. If he can persist in a long time, the other party will give up and reduce support for Ukraine.If the United States is no longer firm and Europe becomes more split, it may bring the tsunami election tsunami that Putin needs.If Trump wins in November, it means that Putin's bets will be rewarded; he will win the international courageous game.
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