Views of securities firms | Non -Silver Financial Industry Weekly: The deposit interest rate is reduced again.

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  2023-12-24,hot topic () released a research report in the non-silver financial industry, stating that the deposit interest rate should be reduced again and should pay attention to the accumulation effect of the policy.

  The specific content of the report is as follows:

  Core opinion: On December 22, the state -owned bank has announced the deposit rate of deposit rates, and regular deposits and rectifications of one, two, three, and five years will be reduced by 10, 20, 25, and 25BP respectively.(23Q3 is 1.73%and 22Q3 is 1.92%), which better supports the real economy. It is expected to open the space for further LPR in 2024 to reduce the cost of social liabilities.The current market shock recovery is mainly due to the low expectations of economic expectations. It is reflected in data that is due to real estate regulation and the poor monetary credit derived M1 continues to decline.We mentioned last week that the Central Economic Work Conference settled the economy, and the fiscal policy and monetary policy were clearly described. Under the goal of "steady progress, advancement, stability, and break first" According to the cumulative effect, in 2024, my country's global competitive enterprises are expected to drive exports, thereby gradually solving the problem of some excess supply and insufficient domestic demand.We believe that the economy should not be pessimistic in 2024.The liquidity, favorable policy, and economic stability of the brokerage sector will be recommended to strengthen the three elements.The deposit interest rate is reduced, the attractive attraction of insurance products is declining. We are still optimistic about the liabilities of insurance product liabilities with functions such as "savings+guarantee". The short -term adjustment or in place brought by the policy should pay attention to the asset -side catalysis and liability side.Fix the resonance brought by.Recommended attention: (), (), (), (), (), () and other market reviews: This week's main index declines, the Shanghai Composite Index reports 2914.78 points, at -0.94%from the previous week;Week-1.75%; the CSI 300 Index was reported at 3337.23 points, at -0.13%from the previous week; the GEM Index was reported at 1825.84 points, a month-on-month of -1.23%.2.42%, the Securities II (Shenwan) Index was reported at 5154.50 points, at -3.21%from the previous week, and the Insurance II (Shenwan) Index was 851.64 points.Last week-4.55%; CSI comprehensive bond (net price) index was reported at 100.87, a month-on-month+0.17%.This week, the cumulative transactions of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities have a total of 315.698 billion shares, with a turnover of 35,198 billion yuan. The average daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities was 702.196 billion yuan, which was 10.84%from the previous week.As of December 21, the balance of Liang Rong was 1663.258 billion yuan, a market value of 2.53%from the market value of A-share circulation from -0.41%last week. As of November 2023, the size of the stock+hybrid fund was 6.64 trillion yuan, +0.26 month-on-month +0.26%, November, the scale of the new issuance of equity funds was 24.1 billion yuan,+166.47%from the previous quarter.In terms of individual stocks, securities firms: () Last week +1.10%, () () was -0.14%from the previous week.Insurance: Ping An of China was+0.80%from the previous week, and the Chinese Life Rings was -1.40%last week. China Tai Baohuan was -0.86%last week.The securities industry view: Under the effect of multiple factors, the appreciation of the yuan fluctuations, and the market capital is expected to turn marginal.Recently, multiple factors have driven the RMB exchange rate to appreciate in fluctuations, and the US internal interest rate cuts are expected to continue to rise.On the other hand, the macro data in November is better. At the end of November, the scale of social financing was 37.639 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%year -on -year; the balance of the broad currency (M2) was 29.12 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 10%.Fund support has been continuously enhanced.We believe that in the future, with the continuous improvement of the domestic macroeconomic economy, the exchange rate market is expected to drive the domestic securities market's capital reimbursement, and the market outlook is expected to margin.Risk factors: The capital market reform policy is less than expected, the competition in the securities firm industry has intensified, and the influence of the capital market fluctuations on performance is uncertain. Insurance companies' reforms are less than expected. Long -term interest rates have surpassed expectations.wait.

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