Views of the Brokerage | Insurance II industry review report: The time deposit interest rate is reduced again, which affects the geometry of insurance?

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  2023-12-22,热议资讯 Soochow Securities released a research report in the insurance II industry. The report pointed out that the regular deposit interest rate has been reduced again, which affects the geometry of insurance?Essence

  The specific content of the report is as follows:

  Investment points event: On December 22, the listing interest rates of the 1, 2, 3, and 5 years of the State -owned Bank of China will be reduced by 10, 20, 25, and 25bPs, respectively.Solving, we briefly analyze the impact on insurance.Why reduce interest rates.Mainly the continuous pressure of bank interest deviation pressure, which is not conducive to continuously increasing services to the real economy.It is worth noting that this transfer is carried out before the "opening of the door" by the bank, and the role of the debt cost of the voltage of 2024 is even more obvious, and it has also opened the space of LPR reduction in early 2024.The average interest rate of net interest margins and RMB loans at the end of 3Q23 at the end of 3Q23 was 1.725%(1.744%, 1.736%, and 1.725%in the first three quarters) and 4.14%, respectively.Under the pressure of stock mortgage interest rates and the pressure of mortgage loans in early 2024, the bank interest margin was further under pressure.At the same time, due to the lack of effective demand this year, the CPI and PPIs continued to be under pressure year -on -year, and the screwdriver of the economy's dragging on the economy appeared.We believe that if the subsequent LPR continues to decline (especially 5 -year LPR), it may open the possibility of further downgrade the predetermined interest rate of personal insurance products above 2024.It affects insurance sales.In this asymmetric rate cut, the supervisory intention will promote the transfer of deposits of residents to consumption and investment.At the same time, from the perspective of regular deposits, short -term deposits have dropped less, and long -term deposits have dropped more to guide enterprises and residents to increase investment and consumption. The economy is strong.In recent years, due to the decline in residents 'income, the macroeconomic continued downturn, wealth management and fund sales have continued to be cold, and the activation of residents' deposits continues to decline. In December 2023, the state -owned bank once again welcomed the third deposit rate in the year.3.0%of the pricing interest rate still has a strong attraction. Under the low interest rate environment, the advantage of insurance capital protection is still prominent.After the adjustment of regular deposit interest rates is expected to boost the savings business such as annuity and increased life insurance.Opening the door of the door: strictly implement the premium of "not to be significantly advanced". Each insurance company has focused on product propaganda work, and the "opening door" intention will advance.In mid -October, the General Administration of Finance Supervision issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Management and Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of Personal Insurance Business" to each person's danger company, pointing out that it is necessary to regulate the underwriting management.To undergo underwriting, the customer's essential funding funds shall be stored in other investment and wealth management accounts to prevent the negative gap.At present, the factors of grass -roots door opening are mainly the scale of the team.The supervision of the 3Q23 banking insurance industry data information press conference proposes that it will start the "newspaper unity" of personal agency channels and agency channels.We believe that the regulatory thinking is in the same vein, and the core purpose is to reduce the cost of medium and long -term debt in the industry, and head companies are expected to benefit from the improvement of the competitive environment for a long time.Each insurance company strictly follows the premium of the premium of "opening the door" premium premium premium in strict accordance with the premium of the premium of "not to be significantly advanced". Due to the inability to collect insurance cash, the first new order and value may face certain pressure. Considering the misalignment effect of the Spring Festival in 2024, it is expected to 1Q24 1Q24The overall value growth rate remains stable.Investment recommendations: We believe that the core reason for the continuous pressure of the current financial stock valuation is that the market is inadequate confidence in the medium- and long -term economic growth: as a cyclical variety, the valuation is obviously under pressure.The current industry is on the liability side data "vacuum" and the "bottom shock" of the asset side.Regular deposit interest rates are reduced, and insurance stocks may usher in short -term "Davis Double -click".Recommended (), (), and (), and actively recommend the weak cycle defense varieties of China Property & Casualty.Risk reminder: "Opening the door" policy is less than expected, residents' income is expected to decline to drag the new single sales, and the macroeconomic sustainable downturn

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