On April 25, US President Biden announced his re -election.
At present, it is difficult to re -election, but it is still more likely to win.
The icon is that Trump and Biden's support rate at the same time. It can be seen that since Afghanistan withdrew, Biden's support rate suddenly fell, and he suddenly fell into a trough entangled with Trump.However, it is worth noting that today, four years ago, the United States under Trump's governance did not say that the economy is indeed very prosperous and the stock market is thriving.
The US $ 19 trillion U.S. Rescue Plan Law and US $ 2.2 trillion "reduction of inflation bonds" is the main achievement of the Bayeng government in the economic work field.Although this package bill is not significant, it can still be called an immediate effect.In 2021, the growth rate of the US GDP reached the peak of the Hou Reagan era, and in 2022, it maintained a good momentum, and the gap between GDP and my country further widen.
From the perspective of numbers, the value and economic growth of the two major bills are indeed luxurious, but they also have the constraints of high inflation numbers.From the perspective of the economic volume measured by the actual price of the US dollar, the growth is not obvious.This also shows that from the economic indicators directly linked to people's livelihood such as actual purchasing power, Biden basically did not achieve any achievements.
However, there is another indicator that it is noticeable that the creation opportunities and consumption expenditures in 2021 have been strong, because the unemployment rate has dropped to a 53 -year low of 3.5%in December.
In contrast, anti -abortion, white people first ... Under Trump's sufficient political incorrectly, Democrats have eaten a good dividend of social issues.
In the first year of Biden, the 40 federal judiciary judges he appointed have been confirmed that more than any president after taking office after taking office.Biden's appointment in judicial appointments is more preferred than any president in American history. Most of the appointments are women and colorful races.
On February 25, 2022, Byndon nominated the Federal Judge Kaitami Brown Jackson into the Supreme Court.She also became the first African -American female judge in the United States.
On December 13, 2022, Biden signed the "Respect of the Marriage Law", abolished the "Defending Marriage Law", and asked the federal government to recognize the effectiveness of American same -sex marriage and cross -race marriage.
In addition, in June 2022, the Supreme Court rejected the Luo Deer's case, and Biden strongly condemned the first time, and tried to maintain the abortion right of women in most states through a variety of means.
The Biden government has returned to a series of international organizations that Trump's "willful" withdrawal, such as the Paris Climate Agreement, WHO and UN Human Rights Council.
During the first year of his term, Biden visited many times, not only participating in the Summit of the Seventh Kingdoms Group, NATO Summit and the EU Summit, but also participated in many countries to visit Britain, France, and Belgium, fully showing the return of the United States to the world's return to the world.Hope and dream in the center of the stage.
The good times are not long. In September 2021, the U.S. military evacuated Afghanistan, and its investment and operation of more than 20 years in Africa was destroyed.The Taliban regime in Afghanistan soon wiped out the government forces and controlled the whole territory.The United States' international prestige is greatly hit, and Biden's support rate has also been sluggish.
In early 2022, the Russian and Ukraine War broke out.The Biden government has unswervingly stood on the side of Ukraine, and provided a large number of arms support for Ukraine with Western European countries, or predicts that the war has been further expanded and the ambitions of weak Russia are used.
Overall, Biden's term has so far.There is no particularly highlight, nor has no particularly important mistakes.This is closely related to its consistent gentle position.
Generally speaking, there will be no major opponents in the party's primary election in the party, such as Obama in 2012, and Trump in 2020.At present, the two competitors nominated by the Democratic Party are shrimp soldiers and crabs.
As far as political standing is concerned, Biden has always been a gentle, middle school Democrat, and the overall political standing is highly consistent with the Democratic Party as a whole, which is a typical establishment.Because of this, the main challenge within its party comes from the extreme left -wing politicians represented by Vermont Senator and democratic socialist Bernie Sanders.In the preliminary election of the Democratic Party in 2020, Sanders also fought at the end.If he had not supported Biden in large quantities, he might even have a primary election.
But this year, Sanders has stated that he will not participate in the election, but supports the re -election of Biden.From this perspective, the Democratic Party has reached a substantial unified opinion on supporting Biden's re -election.But among them, the Democratic Party's successive worries were also faintly revealed.
In addition, the aliens in the Democratic Party include Senator of West Virginia Joe Mantin and Arizona Senator Christen to wash your mother.The "Breaking Act" mentioned above, "Reconstruction of the Better Future Act" ("Build Back Better Act", is the chopping west under the opposition of Manchin, leaving only half of it in the end.However, both blue dogs (conservative Democrats) will be tested by voters in 2024.PVI R+40's Sever, a strange man Manchin, probably defeated.On the other side, wash your mother withdraw from the Democratic Party earlier. The Democratic Party has already stated that it will be selected, so the probability will not be nominated or courteous. The prospect of re -election is also dim. This is a later word.
Finally, we look back at the election itself.
Trump's election has already begun, and the complaint of the peach color in the past not long has increased his support.Its most threatened opponent in the Republican Party, De Santis, still paced in place.Some people are optimistic about Disang's outs, but I don't agree.
De Santis is indeed young, and the image of the voters in the middle is better, but -
My preliminary selection in the Republican Party, what about your middle voters?
At the starting point of the entire political life of De Santis, the end point of the positioning is by far -Florida, among the 20 Republican Federal Republic members, 11 people have made a choice between him and Trump.10 of them support Trump and one person supports him.
There is neither outstanding political talent nor Trump's anger's enthusiastic motivation and personal charm, I can't imagine how he wins such a huge Sichuan fan foundation.
In addition, from the perspective of the election, De Santis's traditional Red State in the traditional sense of Arizonia, except for Sichuan powder, is probably better than Trump for the entire Republican red power, but in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, PennsylvaniaWhat about the blue sway state such as the state and Michigan?Delsan, who was unsatisfactory, was difficult to win.In the case of the Basic Democratic Party, if you lose in the three states (PA, Mi, and Wi) of the lake district, then Biden does not need to win any other swing states and directly win.
Regarding the comparison of Trump and De Santis, I have written before, posted a link, and interested friends read themselves. I won't go into details here.2024 U.S. Presidential Election Guess (Biden VS TRUMP Edition) 2024 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Guess (Biden VS Desantis Edition)
Trump's competitiveness is mainly to have an unusual appeal to blue -collar workers in the three states of the lake.When aware of the core of Trump's economic policy -trade protectionist policy was very popular among blue -collar voters, Biden quickly integrated it into his own policy.In terms of the specific implementation of policies, there are differences between the two.Trump directly implemented by improving tariffs and withdrawal from the free trade agreement. It also directly caused the dissatisfaction of European allies. It can be said that it is not clever.Biden did not rely on tariffs, but subsidized emerging industries in the same scale as the EU, and even in some Democrats' ruling states -such as Michigan and Pennsylvania -compulsory factories.This policy is also very fast, and it is also in line with the tradition of Democratic governmentism.As a result, Biden continued to eat votes of blue -collar workers.
Secondly, when Biden's support rate was low, Trump's support rate was even more low, which was also a warning that the middle voters did not reach a reconciliation with him.Then it is still difficult for him to complete the solid disk of the entire red forces, and it is still difficult to win back to Arizona and Georgia, so it is still impossible to win.
In addition, since the person in the appointment is the Democrat, except for the use of prison storms, Trump may not be able to arouse the high voting enthusiasm of voters as in 2020, and can only adhere to the basic disk of the Right Maga.It is a major obstacle.
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